![]() In addition to research-based insights into better decision-making and remedies to identify and reduce noise as a source of error, Kahneman and his colleagues take a close look at a select group of forecasters-the Superforecasters-whose judgments are not only less biased but also less noisy than those of most decision-makers. Yet, unlike its better-known companion, bias, it often remains undetected-and therefore unmitigated-in decision processes. Noise, defined as unwanted variability in judgments, can be corrosive to decision-making. Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment by Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R.In their New York Times bestseller, Superforecasting, our cofounder Philip Tetlock and his colleague Dan Gardner profile several of these talented forecasters, describing the attributes they share, including open-minded thinking, and argue that forecasting is a skill to be cultivated, rather than an inborn aptitude. One of the biggest discoveries of GJP were the Superforecasters: GJP research found compelling evidence that some people are exceptionally skilled at assigning realistic probabilities to possible outcomes-even on topics outside their primary subject-matter training. GJP’s forecasts were so accurate that they even outperformed those of intelligence analysts with access to classified data. Four years, 500 questions, and over a million forecasts later, the Good Judgment Project (GJP)-led by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at the University of Pennsylvania-emerged as the undisputed victor in the tournament. In 2011, IARPA-the research arm of the US intelligence community-launched a massive competition to identify cutting-edge methods to forecast geopolitical events. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E.Here is a short list of eight notable books that present a wealth of information on ways to evaluate an uncertain future and improve decision-making. As Tetlock and Good Judgment Inc have shown, these are skills that can be learned. They know how to think in probabilities (or “in bets”), reduce the noise in their judgments, and mitigate cognitive biases such as overconfidence. Thanks to being actively open-minded and unafraid to rethink their conclusions, the Superforecasters have been able to make accurate predictions where experts often failed. This is not surprising: Decision-makers have a lot to learn from the Superforecasters. Since the publication of Tetlock and Gardner’s seminal Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, many books and articles have been written about the ground-breaking findings of the Good Judgment Project, its corporate successor Good Judgment Inc, and the Superforecasters. ![]() Books on Making Better Decisions: Good Judgment’s Back-to-School Edition ![]()
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